SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

00:00

1 min

Introduce topic title

Introduce Instructor

Present Objectives

00:01

1 min

• Describe what a Search Area is
• Rest of World - ROW
  • can be just outside search area
  • can be back home, at bar
  • can be some other area completely

3 min

Methods to establish Search Area [2]

Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)

Typically one of two places:

• Point Last Seen (PLS)
• Last Known Point (LKP)
  • e.g. strong belief was there - location of car

Theoretical Search Area [2]

• distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
• statistical search area [2]
• subjective search area [2]
  • likely spots [2]
  • natural barriers [2]
  • physical or mental limits of subject [2]
  • physical clues [2]
  • historical data [2]
  • gut feeling [2]
  • deductive reasoning [2]

1 min

Confinement [2]

• requires prompt action [2]
• tactics [2]
  • vehicle patrols [2]
  • road blocks [2]
  • trail blocks [2]
  • observation posts [2]
  • string lines [2]
  • track traps [2]

1 min

Attraction [2]

• visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
• sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
• aircraft [2]

5 min

Segmentation [2]

• size
  • searchable area in reasonable time
• boundaries
  • challenge of picking boundaries on map
  • risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
  • may have to flag

• POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
• POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
• POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
• POS= POA X POD [1]

• Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
• This helps mgmt., to [1]
  • Distribute resources [1]
  • Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
  • How to treat a segment. [1]
  • Suspend a search. [1]
  • Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]

2 min

Effects on POD [1]

• Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
• Searcher fatigue [1]
• Boredom [1]
• Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
• Terrain [1]
• Anything that affects your senses [1]

POD Influences [1]

• Time [1]
• POD desired or accepted [1]
• Time searcher is available [1]
• Size of the segment [1]
• Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
• Search method [1]

Critical Spacing or Separation [1]

• The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
• Figure that will change with terrain. [1]

SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]

POA [1]

• Probability of area. [1]
• Could the subject be in that area. [1]

Example

• Koopmans Search
• some areas searched 7 times

• Keeping variables independant
• Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
• Estimate portion of areas searched separately
• Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?