SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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* Describe what a Search Area is
* Describe what a Search Area is
-
* Describe ROW
+
* Rest of World - ROW
 +
** can be just outside search area
 +
** can be back home, at bar
 +
** can be some other area completely
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
-
* Methods to establish Search Area [2]
+
'''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]
-
** LKP, PLS, IPP.
+
 
-
** Theoretical Search Area [2]
+
Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)
-
*** distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
+
 
-
*** statistical search area [2]
+
Typically one of two places:
-
*** subjective search area [2]
+
* Point Last Seen (PLS)
-
**** likely spots [2]
+
* Last Known Point (LKP)
-
**** natural barriers [2]
+
** e.g. strong belief was there - location of car
-
**** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
+
 
-
**** physical clues [2]
+
Theoretical Search Area [2]
-
**** historical data [2]
+
* distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
-
**** gut feeling [2]
+
* statistical search area [2]
-
**** deductive reasoning [2]
+
* subjective search area [2]
 +
** likely spots [2]
 +
** natural barriers [2]
 +
** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
 +
** physical clues [2]
 +
** historical data [2]
 +
** gut feeling [2]
 +
** deductive reasoning [2]
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
-
* Confinement [2]
+
'''Confinement''' [2]
-
** requires prompt action [2]
+
* requires prompt action [2]
-
** tactics [2]
+
* tactics [2]
-
*** vehicle patrols [2]
+
** vehicle patrols [2]
-
*** road blocks [2]
+
** road blocks [2]
-
*** trail blocks [2]
+
** trail blocks [2]
-
*** observation posts [2]
+
** observation posts [2]
-
*** string lines [2]
+
** string lines [2]
-
*** track traps [2]
+
** track traps [2]
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
-
* Attraction [2]
+
'''Attraction''' [2]
-
** visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
+
* visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
-
** sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
+
* sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
-
** aircraft [2]
+
* aircraft [2]
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
-
* Segmentation [2]
+
'''Segmentation''' [2]
-
** size
+
* size
-
** boundaries
+
** searchable area in reasonable time
 +
* boundaries
 +
** challenge of picking boundaries on map
 +
** risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
 +
** may have to flag
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
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* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
* POS= POA X POD [1]
* POS= POA X POD [1]
 +
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
Line 91: Line 106:
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
-
* Effects on POD [1]
+
'''Effects on POD''' [1]
-
** Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
+
* Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
-
** Searcher fatigue [1]
+
* Searcher fatigue [1]
-
** Boredom [1]
+
* Boredom [1]
-
** Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
+
* Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
-
** Terrain [1]
+
* Terrain [1]
-
** Anything that affects your senses [1]
+
* Anything that affects your senses [1]
-
* POD Influences [1]
+
 
-
** Time [1]
+
POD Influences [1]
-
** POD desired or accepted [1]
+
* Time [1]
-
** Time searcher is available [1]
+
* POD desired or accepted [1]
-
** Size of the segment [1]
+
* Time searcher is available [1]
-
** Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
+
* Size of the segment [1]
-
** Search method [1]
+
* Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
-
* SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
+
* Search method [1]
 +
 
 +
Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
 +
* The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
 +
* Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
 +
 
 +
 
 +
SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
 +
 
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
-
* POA [1]
+
'''POA''' [1]
-
** Probability of area. [1]
+
* Probability of area. [1]
-
** Could the subject be in that area. [1]
+
* Could the subject be in that area. [1]
-
* Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
+
-
** The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
+
-
** Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
+
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
-
Example
+
'''Example'''
* Koopmans Search
* Koopmans Search
* some areas searched 7 times
* some areas searched 7 times

Revision as of 12:52, 23 February 2013

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Subject

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Authors

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Scope

What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.

SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
Basic SAR Skills Manual:
  • Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
  • Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
Search Area / Confinement

Prerequisites

What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.


Objectives

At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:

  1. will be able to ...

Time Plan

Total Time: 45 minutes

  • 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr


Time Material


00:00

3 min

Introduce topic title

Introduce Instructor

Present Objectives

00:03



  • Describe what a Search Area is
  • Rest of World - ROW
    • can be just outside search area
    • can be back home, at bar
    • can be some other area completely



Methods to establish Search Area [2]

Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)

Typically one of two places:

  • Point Last Seen (PLS)
  • Last Known Point (LKP)
    • e.g. strong belief was there - location of car

Theoretical Search Area [2]

  • distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
  • statistical search area [2]
  • subjective search area [2]
    • likely spots [2]
    • natural barriers [2]
    • physical or mental limits of subject [2]
    • physical clues [2]
    • historical data [2]
    • gut feeling [2]
    • deductive reasoning [2]



Confinement [2]

  • requires prompt action [2]
  • tactics [2]
    • vehicle patrols [2]
    • road blocks [2]
    • trail blocks [2]
    • observation posts [2]
    • string lines [2]
    • track traps [2]



Attraction [2]

  • visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
  • sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
  • aircraft [2]



Segmentation [2]

  • size
    • searchable area in reasonable time
  • boundaries
    • challenge of picking boundaries on map
    • risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
    • may have to flag



  • POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
  • POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
  • POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
  • POS= POA X POD [1]
  • Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
  • This helps mgmt., to [1]
    • Distribute resources [1]
    • Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
    • How to treat a segment. [1]
    • Suspend a search. [1]
    • Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]



Effects on POD [1]

  • Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
  • Searcher fatigue [1]
  • Boredom [1]
  • Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
  • Terrain [1]
  • Anything that affects your senses [1]

POD Influences [1]

  • Time [1]
  • POD desired or accepted [1]
  • Time searcher is available [1]
  • Size of the segment [1]
  • Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
  • Search method [1]

Critical Spacing or Separation [1]

  • The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
  • Figure that will change with terrain. [1]


SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]



POA [1]

  • Probability of area. [1]
  • Could the subject be in that area. [1]



Example

  • Koopmans Search
  • some areas searched 7 times



  • Keeping variables independant
  • Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
  • Estimate portion of areas searched separately
  • Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?



Aids

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Question bank

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See Question bank

Frequently Asked Questions

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Feedback

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  • 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting

License

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Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.

Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

Reference Material

If you need to cite sources, do so here.


[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.

[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13

Notes

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Retrieved from "http://pcsar.dyndns.org/mediawiki/index.php/SAR_Fundamentals/Search_probability"
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