Editing SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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== Subject ==
{{prompt|What is this lesson plan about?}}

== Authors ==	
{{prompt|List who wrote this lesson plan.}}

== Scope ==
{{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
: SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
: Basic SAR Skills Manual:
:* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
:* Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
: Search Area / Confinement

== Prerequisites ==
{{prompt|What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.}}

== Objectives ==
At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:
# will be able to ...

== Time Plan ==
Total Time: 45 minutes
* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
* 2013-02: 25 min

{{lesson slides start}}
{{lesson slide|00:00|1 min}}
Introduce topic title

Introduce Instructor

Present Objectives
{{lesson slide|00:01|1 min}}

* Describe what a Search Area is
* Rest of World - ROW
** can be just outside search area
** can be back home, at bar
** can be some other area completely

{{lesson slide||3 min}}
'''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]

Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)

Typically one of two places:
* Point Last Seen (PLS)
* Last Known Point (LKP)
** e.g. strong belief was there - location of car

Theoretical Search Area [2]
* distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
* statistical search area [2]
* subjective search area [2]
** likely spots [2]
** natural barriers [2]
** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
** physical clues [2]
** historical data [2]
** gut feeling [2]
** deductive reasoning [2]

{{lesson slide||1 min}}
'''Confinement''' [2]
* requires prompt action [2]
* tactics [2]
** vehicle patrols [2]
** road blocks [2]
** trail blocks [2]
** observation posts [2]
** string lines [2]
** track traps [2]

{{lesson slide||1 min}}
'''Attraction''' [2]
* visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
* sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
* aircraft [2]

{{lesson slide||5 min}}
'''Segmentation''' [2]
* size
** searchable area in reasonable time
* boundaries
** challenge of picking boundaries on map
** risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
** may have to flag

{{lesson slide||}}
* POA- probability of area, to find the subject  [1]
* POD- probability of detection, of the subject  [1]
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1] 
*  POS= POA X POD  [1]

*  Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be.  [1]
* This helps mgmt., to   [1]
**            Distribute resources  [1]
**            Decide on which areas to search/research.  [1]
**            How to treat a segment.  [1]
**            Suspend a search.  [1]
**            Use in court.  ( need documentation)  [1]

{{lesson slide||2 min}}
'''Effects on POD'''  [1]
*            Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!!  [1]
*            Searcher fatigue  [1]
*            Boredom  [1]
*            Weather on visibility/comfort  [1]
*            Terrain  [1]
*            Anything that affects your senses  [1]

POD Influences  [1]
*            Time  [1]
*            POD desired or accepted  [1]
*            Time searcher is available  [1]
*            Size of the segment  [1]
*            Type and effectiveness of resources  [1]
*            Search method  [1]

Critical Spacing or Separation  [1]
*           The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line.    [1]
*           Figure that will change with terrain.  [1]

SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD.  [1]

{{lesson slide||}}
'''POA'''  [1]
*           Probability of area.  [1]
*           Could the subject be in that area.  [1]

{{lesson slide||}}
'''Example'''
* Koopmans Search
* some areas searched 7 times

{{lesson slide||}}
* Keeping variables independant
* Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
* Estimate portion of areas searched separately
* Which is better?  Thorough over long time?  Rapid several times?  Why?

== Aids ==
{{prompt|What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.}}
* [[/Restricted|Non-publishable material]]
* flip chart or white board
* suitable markers
* {{link|Image:Members:2013-02-27 19 37 09u-scan.pdf}}
* [[Training/Ideas/Search probability theory]]

== Question bank ==
{{prompt|List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.}}
See {{subpage|Question bank}}

== Frequently Asked Questions ==
{{prompt|What are some of the questions that students typically ask.  Include the answers.}}

== Feedback ==
{{prompt|When has this lesson been presented.  What was the feedback.}}
* 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting

== License ==
{{prompt|What can others do with this lesson?}}

This work is licensed under a 
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License.
To view a copy of this license, visit 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/
or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

== Reference Material ==
{{prompt|If you need to cite sources, do so here.}}

[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.

[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13

== Notes ==
{{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}

Please note that all contributions to PCSAR are considered to be released under the Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported (see PCSAR:Copyrights for details). If you don't want your writing to be edited mercilessly and redistributed at will, then don't submit it here.
You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource. DO NOT SUBMIT COPYRIGHTED WORK WITHOUT PERMISSION!

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@@ Line 169: / Line 169: @@
 {{prompt|What can others do with this lesson?}}
-Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.
+Original content copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.
-Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.
+Original content copyright © 2005, Brett Wuth.
 This work is licensed under a

Editing SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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