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- | {{Lesson plan/Header}}
| + | : 0.75hr |
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- | == Subject ==
| + | : SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory" |
- | {{prompt|What is this lesson plan about?}}
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- | == Authors ==
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- | {{prompt|List who wrote this lesson plan.}}
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- | == Scope ==
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- | {{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
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- | : SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293 | + | |
| : Basic SAR Skills Manual: | | : Basic SAR Skills Manual: |
| :* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials" | | :* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials" |
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| : Search Area / Confinement | | : Search Area / Confinement |
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- | == Prerequisites ==
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- | {{prompt|What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.}}
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- | == Objectives ==
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- | At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:
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- | # will be able to ...
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- | == Time Plan ==
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- | Total Time: 45 minutes
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- | * 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
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- | * 2013-02: 25 min
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- | {{lesson slides start}}
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- | {{lesson slide|00:00|1 min}}
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- | Introduce topic title
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- | Introduce Instructor
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- | Present Objectives
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- | {{lesson slide|00:01|1 min}}
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- | * Describe what a Search Area is
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- | * Rest of World - ROW
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- | ** can be just outside search area
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- | ** can be back home, at bar
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- | ** can be some other area completely
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- | {{lesson slide||3 min}}
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- | '''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]
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- | Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)
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- | Typically one of two places:
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- | * Point Last Seen (PLS)
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- | * Last Known Point (LKP)
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- | ** e.g. strong belief was there - location of car
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- | Theoretical Search Area [2]
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- | * distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
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- | * statistical search area [2]
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- | * subjective search area [2]
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- | ** likely spots [2]
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- | ** natural barriers [2]
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- | ** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
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- | ** physical clues [2]
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- | ** historical data [2]
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- | ** gut feeling [2]
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- | ** deductive reasoning [2]
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- | {{lesson slide||1 min}}
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- | '''Confinement''' [2]
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- | * requires prompt action [2]
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- | * tactics [2]
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- | ** vehicle patrols [2]
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- | ** road blocks [2]
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- | ** trail blocks [2]
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- | ** observation posts [2]
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- | ** string lines [2]
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- | ** track traps [2]
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- | {{lesson slide||1 min}}
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- | '''Attraction''' [2]
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- | * visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
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- | * sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
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- | * aircraft [2]
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- | {{lesson slide||5 min}}
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- | '''Segmentation''' [2]
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- | * size
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- | ** searchable area in reasonable time
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- | * boundaries
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- | ** challenge of picking boundaries on map
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- | ** risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
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- | ** may have to flag
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- | {{lesson slide||}}
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- | * POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
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- | * POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
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- | * POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
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- | * POS= POA X POD [1]
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- | * Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
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- | * This helps mgmt., to [1]
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- | ** Distribute resources [1]
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- | ** Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
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- | ** How to treat a segment. [1]
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- | ** Suspend a search. [1]
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- | ** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
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- | {{lesson slide||2 min}}
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- | '''Effects on POD''' [1]
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- | * Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
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- | * Searcher fatigue [1]
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- | * Boredom [1]
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- | * Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
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- | * Terrain [1]
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- | * Anything that affects your senses [1]
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- | POD Influences [1]
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- | * Time [1]
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- | * POD desired or accepted [1]
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- | * Time searcher is available [1]
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- | * Size of the segment [1]
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- | * Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
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- | * Search method [1]
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- | Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
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- | * The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
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- | * Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
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- | SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
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- | {{lesson slide||}}
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- | '''POA''' [1]
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- | * Probability of area. [1]
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- | * Could the subject be in that area. [1]
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- | {{lesson slide||}}
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- | '''Example'''
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- | * Koopmans Search
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- | * some areas searched 7 times
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- | {{lesson slide||}}
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- | * Keeping variables independant
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- | * Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
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- | * Estimate portion of areas searched separately
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- | * Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
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- | {{lesson slides end}}
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| + | * [[:Image:Search-probability-lesson-plan.odt]] |
| == Aids == | | == Aids == |
- | {{prompt|What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.}}
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- | * [[/Restricted|Non-publishable material]]
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| * flip chart or white board | | * flip chart or white board |
| * suitable markers | | * suitable markers |
- | * {{link|Image:Members:2013-02-27 19 37 09u-scan.pdf}}
| + | * [[/Restricted|Non-publishable material]] |
- | * [[Training/Ideas/Search probability theory]] | + | |
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- | == Question bank ==
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- | {{prompt|List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.}}
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- | See {{subpage|Question bank}}
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- | | + | |
- | == Frequently Asked Questions ==
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- | {{prompt|What are some of the questions that students typically ask. Include the answers.}}
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- | == Feedback ==
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- | {{prompt|When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.}}
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- | * 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting
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- | == License ==
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- | {{prompt|What can others do with this lesson?}}
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- | Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.
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- | Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.
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- | This work is licensed under a
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- | Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License.
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- | To view a copy of this license, visit
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- | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/
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- | or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
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- | == Reference Material ==
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- | {{prompt|If you need to cite sources, do so here.}}
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- | [1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.
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- | [2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13
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- | == Notes ==
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- | {{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}
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