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== Scope ==
== Scope ==
{{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
{{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
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: SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
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: SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory"
: Basic SAR Skills Manual:
: Basic SAR Skills Manual:
:* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
:* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
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== Time Plan ==
== Time Plan ==
Total Time: 45 minutes
Total Time: 45 minutes
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* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
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* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr
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* 2013-02: 25 min
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* [[:Image:Search-probability-lesson-plan.odt]]
{{lesson slides start}}
{{lesson slides start}}
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{{lesson slide|00:00|1 min}}
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{{lesson slide|00:00|3 min}}
Introduce topic title
Introduce topic title
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Present Objectives
Present Objectives
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{{lesson slide|00:01|1 min}}
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{{lesson slide|00:03|}}
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instructional points in normal font
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* Describe what a Search Area is
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* Rest of World - ROW
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** can be just outside search area
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** can be back home, at bar
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** can be some other area completely
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{{lesson slide||3 min}}
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'''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]
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Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)
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Typically one of two places:
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* Point Last Seen (PLS)
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* Last Known Point (LKP)
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** e.g. strong belief was there - location of car
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Theoretical Search Area [2]
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* distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
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* statistical search area [2]
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* subjective search area [2]
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** likely spots [2]
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** natural barriers [2]
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** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
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** physical clues [2]
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** historical data [2]
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** gut feeling [2]
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** deductive reasoning [2]
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{{lesson slide||1 min}}
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'''Confinement''' [2]
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* requires prompt action [2]
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* tactics [2]
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** vehicle patrols [2]
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** road blocks [2]
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** trail blocks [2]
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** observation posts [2]
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** string lines [2]
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** track traps [2]
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{{lesson slide||1 min}}
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'''Attraction''' [2]
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* visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
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* sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
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* aircraft [2]
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{{lesson slide||5 min}}
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'''Segmentation''' [2]
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* size
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** searchable area in reasonable time
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* boundaries
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** challenge of picking boundaries on map
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** risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
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** may have to flag
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{{lesson slide||}}
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* POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
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* POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
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* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
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* POS= POA X POD [1]
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* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
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* This helps mgmt., to [1]
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** Distribute resources [1]
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** Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
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** How to treat a segment. [1]
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** Suspend a search. [1]
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** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
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{{lesson slide||2 min}}
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'''Effects on POD''' [1]
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* Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
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* Searcher fatigue [1]
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* Boredom [1]
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* Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
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* Terrain [1]
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* Anything that affects your senses [1]
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POD Influences [1]
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* Time [1]
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* POD desired or accepted [1]
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* Time searcher is available [1]
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* Size of the segment [1]
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* Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
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* Search method [1]
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Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
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* The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
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* Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
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SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
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{{lesson slide||}}
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'''POA''' [1]
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* Probability of area. [1]
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* Could the subject be in that area. [1]
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{{lesson slide||}}
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'''Example'''
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* Koopmans Search
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* some areas searched 7 times
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{{lesson slide||}}
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* Keeping variables independant
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* Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
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* Estimate portion of areas searched separately
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* Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
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''aids, exercises, activities in italic''
{{lesson slides end}}
{{lesson slides end}}
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* flip chart or white board
* flip chart or white board
* suitable markers
* suitable markers
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* {{link|Image:Members:2013-02-27 19 37 09u-scan.pdf}}
 
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* [[Training/Ideas/Search probability theory]]
 
== Question bank ==
== Question bank ==
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== Feedback ==
== Feedback ==
{{prompt|When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.}}
{{prompt|When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.}}
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* 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting
 
== License ==
== License ==
{{prompt|What can others do with this lesson?}}
{{prompt|What can others do with this lesson?}}
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Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.
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Recommended license below. Fill in the year and the author's name(s):
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Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.
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Copyright © YEAR, Author.
This work is licensed under a
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License.
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License.
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{{prompt|If you need to cite sources, do so here.}}
{{prompt|If you need to cite sources, do so here.}}
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[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.
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[1]
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[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13
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== Notes ==
== Notes ==
{{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}
{{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}

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