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== Time Plan ==
== Time Plan ==
Total Time: 45 minutes
Total Time: 45 minutes
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* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
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* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr
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* 2013-02: 25 min
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* [[:Image:Search-probability-lesson-plan.odt]]
{{lesson slides start}}
{{lesson slides start}}
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{{lesson slide|00:00|1 min}}
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{{lesson slide|00:00|3 min}}
Introduce topic title
Introduce topic title
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Present Objectives
Present Objectives
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{{lesson slide|00:01|1 min}}
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{{lesson slide|00:03|}}
* Describe what a Search Area is
* Describe what a Search Area is
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* Rest of World - ROW
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* Describe ROW
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** can be just outside search area
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** can be back home, at bar
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** can be some other area completely
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{{lesson slide||3 min}}
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{{lesson slide||}}
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'''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]
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* Methods to establish Search Area [2]
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** LKP, PLS, IPP.
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** Theoretical Search Area [2]
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*** distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
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*** statistical search area [2]
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*** subjective search area [2]
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**** likely spots [2]
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**** natural barriers [2]
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**** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
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**** physical clues [2]
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**** historical data [2]
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**** gut feeling [2]
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**** deductive reasoning [2]
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Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)
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{{lesson slide||}}
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* Confinement [2]
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** requires prompt action [2]
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** tactics [2]
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*** vehicle patrols [2]
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*** road blocks [2]
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*** trail blocks [2]
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*** observation posts [2]
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*** string lines [2]
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*** track traps [2]
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Typically one of two places:
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{{lesson slide||}}
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* Point Last Seen (PLS)
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* Attraction [2]
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* Last Known Point (LKP)
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** visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
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** e.g. strong belief was there - location of car
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** sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
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** aircraft [2]
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Theoretical Search Area [2]
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{{lesson slide||}}
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* distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
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* Segmentation [2]
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* statistical search area [2]
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** size
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* subjective search area [2]
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** boundaries
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** likely spots [2]
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** natural barriers [2]
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** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
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** physical clues [2]
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** historical data [2]
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** gut feeling [2]
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** deductive reasoning [2]
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-
 
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{{lesson slide||1 min}}
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'''Confinement''' [2]
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* requires prompt action [2]
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* tactics [2]
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** vehicle patrols [2]
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** road blocks [2]
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** trail blocks [2]
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** observation posts [2]
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** string lines [2]
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** track traps [2]
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+
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{{lesson slide||1 min}}
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'''Attraction''' [2]
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* visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
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* sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
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* aircraft [2]
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{{lesson slide||5 min}}
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'''Segmentation''' [2]
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* size
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** searchable area in reasonable time
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* boundaries
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** challenge of picking boundaries on map
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** risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
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** may have to flag
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{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
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* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
* POS= POA X POD [1]
* POS= POA X POD [1]
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* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
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** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
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{{lesson slide||2 min}}
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{{lesson slide||}}
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'''Effects on POD''' [1]
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* Effects on POD [1]
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* Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
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** Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
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* Searcher fatigue [1]
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** Searcher fatigue [1]
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* Boredom [1]
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** Boredom [1]
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* Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
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** Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
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* Terrain [1]
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** Terrain [1]
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* Anything that affects your senses [1]
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** Anything that affects your senses [1]
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* POD Influences [1]
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POD Influences [1]
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** Time [1]
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* Time [1]
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** POD desired or accepted [1]
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* POD desired or accepted [1]
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** Time searcher is available [1]
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* Time searcher is available [1]
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** Size of the segment [1]
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* Size of the segment [1]
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** Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
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* Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
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** Search method [1]
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* Search method [1]
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* SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
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Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
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* The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
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* Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
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SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
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{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
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'''POA''' [1]
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* POA [1]
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* Probability of area. [1]
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** Probability of area. [1]
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* Could the subject be in that area. [1]
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** Could the subject be in that area. [1]
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* Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
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** The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
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** Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
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'''Example'''
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Example
* Koopmans Search
* Koopmans Search
* some areas searched 7 times
* some areas searched 7 times
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* flip chart or white board
* flip chart or white board
* suitable markers
* suitable markers
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* {{link|Image:Members:2013-02-27 19 37 09u-scan.pdf}}
 
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* [[Training/Ideas/Search probability theory]]
 
== Question bank ==
== Question bank ==

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