Editing SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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== Subject ==
{{prompt|What is this lesson plan about?}}

== Authors ==	
{{prompt|List who wrote this lesson plan.}}

== Scope ==
{{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
: SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
: Basic SAR Skills Manual:
:* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
:* Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
: Search Area / Confinement

== Prerequisites ==
{{prompt|What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.}}

== Objectives ==
At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:
# will be able to ...

== Time Plan ==
Total Time: 45 minutes
* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
* 2013-02: 25 min

{{lesson slides start}}
{{lesson slide|00:00|3 min}}
Introduce topic title

Introduce Instructor

Present Objectives
{{lesson slide|00:03|}}

* Describe what a Search Area is
* Rest of World - ROW
** can be just outside search area
** can be back home, at bar
** can be some other area completely

{{lesson slide||}}
'''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]

Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)

Typically one of two places:
* Point Last Seen (PLS)
* Last Known Point (LKP)
** e.g. strong belief was there - location of car

Theoretical Search Area [2]
* distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
* statistical search area [2]
* subjective search area [2]
** likely spots [2]
** natural barriers [2]
** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
** physical clues [2]
** historical data [2]
** gut feeling [2]
** deductive reasoning [2]

{{lesson slide||}}
'''Confinement''' [2]
* requires prompt action [2]
* tactics [2]
** vehicle patrols [2]
** road blocks [2]
** trail blocks [2]
** observation posts [2]
** string lines [2]
** track traps [2]

{{lesson slide||}}
'''Attraction''' [2]
* visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
* sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
* aircraft [2]

{{lesson slide||}}
'''Segmentation''' [2]
* size
** searchable area in reasonable time
* boundaries
** challenge of picking boundaries on map
** risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
** may have to flag

{{lesson slide||}}
* POA- probability of area, to find the subject  [1]
* POD- probability of detection, of the subject  [1]
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1] 
*  POS= POA X POD  [1]

*  Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be.  [1]
* This helps mgmt., to   [1]
**            Distribute resources  [1]
**            Decide on which areas to search/research.  [1]
**            How to treat a segment.  [1]
**            Suspend a search.  [1]
**            Use in court.  ( need documentation)  [1]

{{lesson slide||}}
'''Effects on POD'''  [1]
*            Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!!  [1]
*            Searcher fatigue  [1]
*            Boredom  [1]
*            Weather on visibility/comfort  [1]
*            Terrain  [1]
*            Anything that affects your senses  [1]

POD Influences  [1]
*            Time  [1]
*            POD desired or accepted  [1]
*            Time searcher is available  [1]
*            Size of the segment  [1]
*            Type and effectiveness of resources  [1]
*            Search method  [1]

Critical Spacing or Separation  [1]
*           The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line.    [1]
*           Figure that will change with terrain.  [1]

SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD.  [1]

{{lesson slide||}}
'''POA'''  [1]
*           Probability of area.  [1]
*           Could the subject be in that area.  [1]

{{lesson slide||}}
'''Example'''
* Koopmans Search
* some areas searched 7 times

{{lesson slide||}}
* Keeping variables independant
* Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
* Estimate portion of areas searched separately
* Which is better?  Thorough over long time?  Rapid several times?  Why?

== Aids ==
{{prompt|What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.}}
* [[/Restricted|Non-publishable material]]
* flip chart or white board
* suitable markers
* {{link|Image:Members:2013-02-27 19 37 09u-scan.pdf}}
* [[Training/Ideas/Search probability theory]]

== Question bank ==
{{prompt|List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.}}
See {{subpage|Question bank}}

== Frequently Asked Questions ==
{{prompt|What are some of the questions that students typically ask.  Include the answers.}}

== Feedback ==
{{prompt|When has this lesson been presented.  What was the feedback.}}
* 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting

== License ==
{{prompt|What can others do with this lesson?}}

This work is licensed under a 
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License.
To view a copy of this license, visit 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/
or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

== Reference Material ==
{{prompt|If you need to cite sources, do so here.}}

[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.

[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13

== Notes ==
{{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}

Please note that all contributions to PCSAR are considered to be released under the Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported (see PCSAR:Copyrights for details). If you don't want your writing to be edited mercilessly and redistributed at will, then don't submit it here.
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Editing SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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@@ Line 28: / Line 28: @@
 {{lesson slides start}}
-{{lesson slide|00:00|1 min}}
+{{lesson slide|00:00|3 min}}
 Introduce topic title
@@ Line 34: / Line 34: @@
 Present Objectives
-{{lesson slide|00:01|1 min}}
+{{lesson slide|00:03|}}
 * Describe what a Search Area is
@@ Line 42: / Line 42: @@
 ** can be some other area completely
-{{lesson slide||3 min}}
+{{lesson slide||}}
 '''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]
@@ Line 64: / Line 64: @@
 ** deductive reasoning [2]
-{{lesson slide||1 min}}
+{{lesson slide||}}
 '''Confinement''' [2]
 * requires prompt action [2]
@@ Line 75: / Line 75: @@
 ** track traps [2]
-{{lesson slide||1 min}}
+{{lesson slide||}}
 '''Attraction''' [2]
 * visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
@@ Line 81: / Line 81: @@
 * aircraft [2]
-{{lesson slide||5 min}}
+{{lesson slide||}}
 '''Segmentation''' [2]
 * size
@@ Line 104: / Line 104: @@
 **            Use in court.  ( need documentation)  [1]
-{{lesson slide||2 min}}
+{{lesson slide||}}
 '''Effects on POD'''  [1]
 *            Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!!  [1]