SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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== Scope ==
== Scope ==
{{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
{{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
-
: SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory"
+
: SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
: Basic SAR Skills Manual:
: Basic SAR Skills Manual:
:* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
:* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
Line 24: Line 24:
== Time Plan ==
== Time Plan ==
Total Time: 45 minutes
Total Time: 45 minutes
-
* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr
+
* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
-
 
+
* 2013-02: 25 min
-
* [[:Image:Search-probability-lesson-plan.odt]]
+
{{lesson slides start}}
{{lesson slides start}}
-
{{lesson slide|00:00|3 min}}
+
{{lesson slide|00:00|1 min}}
Introduce topic title
Introduce topic title
Line 35: Line 34:
Present Objectives
Present Objectives
-
{{lesson slide|00:03|}}
+
{{lesson slide|00:01|1 min}}
-
instructional points in normal font
+
 
 +
* Describe what a Search Area is
 +
* Rest of World - ROW
 +
** can be just outside search area
 +
** can be back home, at bar
 +
** can be some other area completely
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||3 min}}
 +
'''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]
 +
 
 +
Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)
 +
 
 +
Typically one of two places:
 +
* Point Last Seen (PLS)
 +
* Last Known Point (LKP)
 +
** e.g. strong belief was there - location of car
 +
 
 +
Theoretical Search Area [2]
 +
* distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
 +
* statistical search area [2]
 +
* subjective search area [2]
 +
** likely spots [2]
 +
** natural barriers [2]
 +
** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
 +
** physical clues [2]
 +
** historical data [2]
 +
** gut feeling [2]
 +
** deductive reasoning [2]
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||1 min}}
 +
'''Confinement''' [2]
 +
* requires prompt action [2]
 +
* tactics [2]
 +
** vehicle patrols [2]
 +
** road blocks [2]
 +
** trail blocks [2]
 +
** observation posts [2]
 +
** string lines [2]
 +
** track traps [2]
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||1 min}}
 +
'''Attraction''' [2]
 +
* visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
 +
* sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
 +
* aircraft [2]
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||5 min}}
 +
'''Segmentation''' [2]
 +
* size
 +
** searchable area in reasonable time
 +
* boundaries
 +
** challenge of picking boundaries on map
 +
** risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
 +
** may have to flag
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
 +
* POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
 +
* POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
 +
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
 +
* POS= POA X POD [1]
 +
 
 +
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
 +
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
 +
** Distribute resources [1]
 +
** Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
 +
** How to treat a segment. [1]
 +
** Suspend a search. [1]
 +
** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||2 min}}
 +
'''Effects on POD''' [1]
 +
* Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
 +
* Searcher fatigue [1]
 +
* Boredom [1]
 +
* Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
 +
* Terrain [1]
 +
* Anything that affects your senses [1]
 +
 
 +
POD Influences [1]
 +
* Time [1]
 +
* POD desired or accepted [1]
 +
* Time searcher is available [1]
 +
* Size of the segment [1]
 +
* Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
 +
* Search method [1]
 +
 
 +
Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
 +
* The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
 +
* Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
 +
 
 +
 
 +
SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
 +
 
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
 +
'''POA''' [1]
 +
* Probability of area. [1]
 +
* Could the subject be in that area. [1]
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
 +
'''Example'''
 +
* Koopmans Search
 +
* some areas searched 7 times
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
 +
* Keeping variables independant
 +
* Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
 +
* Estimate portion of areas searched separately
 +
* Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
-
''aids, exercises, activities in italic''
 
{{lesson slides end}}
{{lesson slides end}}
Line 46: Line 152:
* flip chart or white board
* flip chart or white board
* suitable markers
* suitable markers
 +
* {{link|Image:Members:2013-02-27 19 37 09u-scan.pdf}}
 +
* [[Training/Ideas/Search probability theory]]
== Question bank ==
== Question bank ==
Line 80: Line 188:
== Notes ==
== Notes ==
{{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}
{{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}
-
 
-
* [From Jake's outline]
 
-
* Chapter outlines
 
-
* Chapter 22
 
-
* Search Probability Theory p.293
 
-
* Describe what a Search Area is
 
-
* Describe ROW
 
-
* Methods to establish Search Area [2]
 
-
** LKP, PLS, IPP.
 
-
** Theoretical Search Area [2]
 
-
*** distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
 
-
*** statistical search area [2]
 
-
*** subjective search area [2]
 
-
**** likely spots [2]
 
-
**** natural barriers [2]
 
-
**** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
 
-
**** physical clues [2]
 
-
**** historical data [2]
 
-
**** gut feeling [2]
 
-
**** deductive reasoning [2]
 
-
* Confinement [2]
 
-
** requires prompt action [2]
 
-
** tactics [2]
 
-
*** vehicle patrols [2]
 
-
*** road blocks [2]
 
-
*** trail blocks [2]
 
-
*** observation posts [2]
 
-
*** string lines [2]
 
-
*** track traps [2]
 
-
* Attraction [2]
 
-
** visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
 
-
** sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
 
-
** aircraft [2]
 
-
* Segmentation [2]
 
-
** size
 
-
** boundaries
 
-
* POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
 
-
* POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
 
-
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
 
-
* POS= POA X POD [1]
 
-
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how
 
-
* effective they have been or will be. [1]
 
-
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
 
-
** Distribute resources [1]
 
-
** Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
 
-
** How to treat a segment. [1]
 
-
** Suspend a search. [1]
 
-
** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
 
-
* Effects on POD [1]
 
-
** Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
 
-
** Searcher fatigue [1]
 
-
** Boredom [1]
 
-
** Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
 
-
** Terrain [1]
 
-
** Anything that affects your senses [1]
 
-
* POD Influences [1]
 
-
** Time [1]
 
-
** POD desired or accepted [1]
 
-
** Time searcher is available [1]
 
-
** Size of the segment [1]
 
-
** Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
 
-
** Search method [1]
 
-
* SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
 
-
* POA [1]
 
-
** Probability of area. [1]
 
-
** Could the subject be in that area. [1]
 
-
* Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
 
-
** The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
 
-
** Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
 
-
* How to set it up [1]
 
-
** Placing an object ( the approx., size of the subject) on the ground. [1]
 
-
** Two searchers walk away until the last step of not seeing it. [1]
 
-
** This change with terrain/visibility. [1]
 
-
** Will be discussed in greater detail later. [1]
 
-
* Practice POD [1]
 
-
* Show the " old wives tales overhead". [1]
 
-
 
-
* Koopmans Search
 
-
* some areas searched 7 times
 
-
* Keeping variables independant
 
-
* Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
 
-
* Estimate portion of areas searched separately
 
-
* Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
 

Current revision

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Contents

[edit] Subject

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[edit] Authors

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[edit] Scope

What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.

SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
Basic SAR Skills Manual:
  • Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
  • Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
Search Area / Confinement

[edit] Prerequisites

What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.


[edit] Objectives

At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:

  1. will be able to ...

[edit] Time Plan

Total Time: 45 minutes

  • 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
  • 2013-02: 25 min


Time Material


00:00

1 min

Introduce topic title

Introduce Instructor

Present Objectives

00:01

1 min


  • Describe what a Search Area is
  • Rest of World - ROW
    • can be just outside search area
    • can be back home, at bar
    • can be some other area completely



3 min

Methods to establish Search Area [2]

Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)

Typically one of two places:

  • Point Last Seen (PLS)
  • Last Known Point (LKP)
    • e.g. strong belief was there - location of car

Theoretical Search Area [2]

  • distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
  • statistical search area [2]
  • subjective search area [2]
    • likely spots [2]
    • natural barriers [2]
    • physical or mental limits of subject [2]
    • physical clues [2]
    • historical data [2]
    • gut feeling [2]
    • deductive reasoning [2]



1 min

Confinement [2]

  • requires prompt action [2]
  • tactics [2]
    • vehicle patrols [2]
    • road blocks [2]
    • trail blocks [2]
    • observation posts [2]
    • string lines [2]
    • track traps [2]



1 min

Attraction [2]

  • visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
  • sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
  • aircraft [2]



5 min

Segmentation [2]

  • size
    • searchable area in reasonable time
  • boundaries
    • challenge of picking boundaries on map
    • risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
    • may have to flag



  • POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
  • POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
  • POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
  • POS= POA X POD [1]
  • Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
  • This helps mgmt., to [1]
    • Distribute resources [1]
    • Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
    • How to treat a segment. [1]
    • Suspend a search. [1]
    • Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]



2 min

Effects on POD [1]

  • Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
  • Searcher fatigue [1]
  • Boredom [1]
  • Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
  • Terrain [1]
  • Anything that affects your senses [1]

POD Influences [1]

  • Time [1]
  • POD desired or accepted [1]
  • Time searcher is available [1]
  • Size of the segment [1]
  • Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
  • Search method [1]

Critical Spacing or Separation [1]

  • The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
  • Figure that will change with terrain. [1]


SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]



POA [1]

  • Probability of area. [1]
  • Could the subject be in that area. [1]



Example

  • Koopmans Search
  • some areas searched 7 times



  • Keeping variables independant
  • Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
  • Estimate portion of areas searched separately
  • Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?



[edit] Aids

What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.

[edit] Question bank

List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.

See Question bank

[edit] Frequently Asked Questions

What are some of the questions that students typically ask. Include the answers.


[edit] Feedback

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  • 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting

[edit] License

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Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.

Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

[edit] Reference Material

If you need to cite sources, do so here.


[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.

[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13

[edit] Notes

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