SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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* [[Training/Ideas/Search probability theory]]
== Question bank ==
== Question bank ==

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SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
Basic SAR Skills Manual:
  • Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
  • Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
Search Area / Confinement

[edit] Prerequisites

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[edit] Objectives

At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:

  1. will be able to ...

[edit] Time Plan

Total Time: 45 minutes

  • 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
  • 2013-02: 25 min


Time Material


00:00

1 min

Introduce topic title

Introduce Instructor

Present Objectives

00:01

1 min


  • Describe what a Search Area is
  • Rest of World - ROW
    • can be just outside search area
    • can be back home, at bar
    • can be some other area completely



3 min

Methods to establish Search Area [2]

Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)

Typically one of two places:

  • Point Last Seen (PLS)
  • Last Known Point (LKP)
    • e.g. strong belief was there - location of car

Theoretical Search Area [2]

  • distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
  • statistical search area [2]
  • subjective search area [2]
    • likely spots [2]
    • natural barriers [2]
    • physical or mental limits of subject [2]
    • physical clues [2]
    • historical data [2]
    • gut feeling [2]
    • deductive reasoning [2]



1 min

Confinement [2]

  • requires prompt action [2]
  • tactics [2]
    • vehicle patrols [2]
    • road blocks [2]
    • trail blocks [2]
    • observation posts [2]
    • string lines [2]
    • track traps [2]



1 min

Attraction [2]

  • visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
  • sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
  • aircraft [2]



5 min

Segmentation [2]

  • size
    • searchable area in reasonable time
  • boundaries
    • challenge of picking boundaries on map
    • risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
    • may have to flag



  • POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
  • POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
  • POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
  • POS= POA X POD [1]
  • Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
  • This helps mgmt., to [1]
    • Distribute resources [1]
    • Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
    • How to treat a segment. [1]
    • Suspend a search. [1]
    • Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]



2 min

Effects on POD [1]

  • Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
  • Searcher fatigue [1]
  • Boredom [1]
  • Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
  • Terrain [1]
  • Anything that affects your senses [1]

POD Influences [1]

  • Time [1]
  • POD desired or accepted [1]
  • Time searcher is available [1]
  • Size of the segment [1]
  • Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
  • Search method [1]

Critical Spacing or Separation [1]

  • The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
  • Figure that will change with terrain. [1]


SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]



POA [1]

  • Probability of area. [1]
  • Could the subject be in that area. [1]



Example

  • Koopmans Search
  • some areas searched 7 times



  • Keeping variables independant
  • Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
  • Estimate portion of areas searched separately
  • Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?



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[edit] Feedback

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  • 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting

[edit] License

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Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.

Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

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[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.

[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13

[edit] Notes

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