SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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== Scope ==
== Scope ==
{{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
{{prompt|What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.}}
-
: SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory"
+
: SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
: Basic SAR Skills Manual:
: Basic SAR Skills Manual:
:* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
:* Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
Line 36: Line 36:
Present Objectives
Present Objectives
{{lesson slide|00:03|}}
{{lesson slide|00:03|}}
-
instructional points in normal font
 
-
''aids, exercises, activities in italic''
 
-
{{lesson slides end}}
 
-
 
-
== Aids ==
 
-
{{prompt|What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.}}
 
-
* [[/Restricted|Non-publishable material]]
 
-
* flip chart or white board
 
-
* suitable markers
 
-
 
-
== Question bank ==
 
-
{{prompt|List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.}}
 
-
See {{subpage|Question bank}}
 
-
 
-
== Frequently Asked Questions ==
 
-
{{prompt|What are some of the questions that students typically ask. Include the answers.}}
 
-
 
-
== Feedback ==
 
-
{{prompt|When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.}}
 
-
* 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting
 
-
 
-
== License ==
 
-
{{prompt|What can others do with this lesson?}}
 
-
 
-
Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.
 
-
 
-
Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.
 
-
 
-
This work is licensed under a
 
-
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License.
 
-
To view a copy of this license, visit
 
-
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/
 
-
or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
 
-
 
-
== Reference Material ==
 
-
{{prompt|If you need to cite sources, do so here.}}
 
-
 
-
[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.
 
-
 
-
[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13
 
-
 
-
== Notes ==
 
-
{{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}
 
-
 
-
* [From Jake's outline]
 
-
* Chapter outlines
 
-
* Chapter 22
 
-
* Search Probability Theory p.293
 
* Describe what a Search Area is
* Describe what a Search Area is
* Describe ROW
* Describe ROW
 +
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
* Methods to establish Search Area [2]
* Methods to establish Search Area [2]
** LKP, PLS, IPP.
** LKP, PLS, IPP.
Line 100: Line 54:
**** gut feeling [2]
**** gut feeling [2]
**** deductive reasoning [2]
**** deductive reasoning [2]
 +
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
* Confinement [2]
* Confinement [2]
** requires prompt action [2]
** requires prompt action [2]
Line 109: Line 65:
*** string lines [2]
*** string lines [2]
*** track traps [2]
*** track traps [2]
 +
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
* Attraction [2]
* Attraction [2]
** visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
** visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
** sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
** sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
** aircraft [2]
** aircraft [2]
 +
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
* Segmentation [2]
* Segmentation [2]
** size
** size
** boundaries
** boundaries
 +
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
* POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
* POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
* POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
* POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
* POS= POA X POD [1]
* POS= POA X POD [1]
-
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how
+
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
-
* effective they have been or will be. [1]
+
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
** Distribute resources [1]
** Distribute resources [1]
Line 128: Line 89:
** Suspend a search. [1]
** Suspend a search. [1]
** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
 +
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
* Effects on POD [1]
* Effects on POD [1]
** Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
** Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
Line 143: Line 106:
** Search method [1]
** Search method [1]
* SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
* SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
 +
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
* POA [1]
* POA [1]
** Probability of area. [1]
** Probability of area. [1]
Line 149: Line 114:
** The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
** The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
** Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
** Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
-
* How to set it up [1]
 
-
** Placing an object ( the approx., size of the subject) on the ground. [1]
 
-
** Two searchers walk away until the last step of not seeing it. [1]
 
-
** This change with terrain/visibility. [1]
 
-
** Will be discussed in greater detail later. [1]
 
-
* Practice POD [1]
 
-
* Show the " old wives tales overhead". [1]
 
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
 +
Example
* Koopmans Search
* Koopmans Search
* some areas searched 7 times
* some areas searched 7 times
 +
 +
{{lesson slide||}}
* Keeping variables independant
* Keeping variables independant
* Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
* Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
* Estimate portion of areas searched separately
* Estimate portion of areas searched separately
* Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
* Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
 +
 +
{{lesson slides end}}
 +
 +
== Aids ==
 +
{{prompt|What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.}}
 +
* [[/Restricted|Non-publishable material]]
 +
* flip chart or white board
 +
* suitable markers
 +
 +
== Question bank ==
 +
{{prompt|List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.}}
 +
See {{subpage|Question bank}}
 +
 +
== Frequently Asked Questions ==
 +
{{prompt|What are some of the questions that students typically ask. Include the answers.}}
 +
 +
== Feedback ==
 +
{{prompt|When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.}}
 +
* 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting
 +
 +
== License ==
 +
{{prompt|What can others do with this lesson?}}
 +
 +
Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.
 +
 +
Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.
 +
 +
This work is licensed under a
 +
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License.
 +
To view a copy of this license, visit
 +
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/
 +
or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
 +
 +
== Reference Material ==
 +
{{prompt|If you need to cite sources, do so here.}}
 +
 +
[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.
 +
 +
[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13
 +
 +
== Notes ==
 +
{{prompt|Any additional notes, etc.}}

Revision as of 12:40, 23 February 2013

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Contents

Subject

What is this lesson plan about?


Authors

List who wrote this lesson plan.


Scope

What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.

SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
Basic SAR Skills Manual:
  • Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
  • Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
Search Area / Confinement

Prerequisites

What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.


Objectives

At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:

  1. will be able to ...

Time Plan

Total Time: 45 minutes

  • 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr


Time Material


00:00

3 min

Introduce topic title

Introduce Instructor

Present Objectives

00:03



  • Describe what a Search Area is
  • Describe ROW



  • Methods to establish Search Area [2]
    • LKP, PLS, IPP.
    • Theoretical Search Area [2]
      • distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
      • statistical search area [2]
      • subjective search area [2]
        • likely spots [2]
        • natural barriers [2]
        • physical or mental limits of subject [2]
        • physical clues [2]
        • historical data [2]
        • gut feeling [2]
        • deductive reasoning [2]



  • Confinement [2]
    • requires prompt action [2]
    • tactics [2]
      • vehicle patrols [2]
      • road blocks [2]
      • trail blocks [2]
      • observation posts [2]
      • string lines [2]
      • track traps [2]



  • Attraction [2]
    • visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
    • sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
    • aircraft [2]



  • Segmentation [2]
    • size
    • boundaries



  • POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
  • POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
  • POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
  • POS= POA X POD [1]
  • Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
  • This helps mgmt., to [1]
    • Distribute resources [1]
    • Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
    • How to treat a segment. [1]
    • Suspend a search. [1]
    • Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]



  • Effects on POD [1]
    • Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
    • Searcher fatigue [1]
    • Boredom [1]
    • Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
    • Terrain [1]
    • Anything that affects your senses [1]
  • POD Influences [1]
    • Time [1]
    • POD desired or accepted [1]
    • Time searcher is available [1]
    • Size of the segment [1]
    • Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
    • Search method [1]
  • SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]



  • POA [1]
    • Probability of area. [1]
    • Could the subject be in that area. [1]
  • Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
    • The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
    • Figure that will change with terrain. [1]



Example

  • Koopmans Search
  • some areas searched 7 times



  • Keeping variables independant
  • Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
  • Estimate portion of areas searched separately
  • Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?



Aids

What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.

Question bank

List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.

See Question bank

Frequently Asked Questions

What are some of the questions that students typically ask. Include the answers.


Feedback

When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.

  • 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting

License

What can others do with this lesson?


Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.

Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

Reference Material

If you need to cite sources, do so here.


[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.

[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13

Notes

Any additional notes, etc.

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