SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory"
Basic SAR Skills Manual:
  • Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
  • Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
Search Area / Confinement

Prerequisites

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Objectives

At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:

  1. will be able to ...

Time Plan

Total Time: 45 minutes

  • 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr


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00:00

3 min

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00:03


instructional points in normal font

aids, exercises, activities in italic


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Feedback

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  • 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting

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Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.

Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

Reference Material

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[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.

[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13

Notes

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  • [From Jake's outline]
  • Chapter outlines
  • Chapter 22
  • Search Probability Theory p.293
  • Describe what a Search Area is
  • Describe ROW
  • Methods to establish Search Area [2]
    • LKP, PLS, IPP.
    • Theoretical Search Area [2]
      • distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
      • statistical search area [2]
      • subjective search area [2]
        • likely spots [2]
        • natural barriers [2]
        • physical or mental limits of subject [2]
        • physical clues [2]
        • historical data [2]
        • gut feeling [2]
        • deductive reasoning [2]
  • Confinement [2]
    • requires prompt action [2]
    • tactics [2]
      • vehicle patrols [2]
      • road blocks [2]
      • trail blocks [2]
      • observation posts [2]
      • string lines [2]
      • track traps [2]
  • Attraction [2]
    • visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
    • sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
    • aircraft [2]
  • Segmentation [2]
    • size
    • boundaries
  • POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
  • POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
  • POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
  • POS= POA X POD [1]
  • Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how
  • effective they have been or will be. [1]
  • This helps mgmt., to [1]
    • Distribute resources [1]
    • Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
    • How to treat a segment. [1]
    • Suspend a search. [1]
    • Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
  • Effects on POD [1]
    • Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
    • Searcher fatigue [1]
    • Boredom [1]
    • Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
    • Terrain [1]
    • Anything that affects your senses [1]
  • POD Influences [1]
    • Time [1]
    • POD desired or accepted [1]
    • Time searcher is available [1]
    • Size of the segment [1]
    • Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
    • Search method [1]
  • SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
  • POA [1]
    • Probability of area. [1]
    • Could the subject be in that area. [1]
  • Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
    • The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
    • Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
  • How to set it up [1]
    • Placing an object ( the approx., size of the subject) on the ground. [1]
    • Two searchers walk away until the last step of not seeing it. [1]
    • This change with terrain/visibility. [1]
    • Will be discussed in greater detail later. [1]
  • Practice POD [1]
  • Show the " old wives tales overhead". [1]
  • Koopmans Search
  • some areas searched 7 times
  • Keeping variables independant
  • Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
  • Estimate portion of areas searched separately
  • Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
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