SAR Fundamentals/Search probability

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== Time Plan ==
== Time Plan ==
Total Time: 45 minutes
Total Time: 45 minutes
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* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr
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* 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
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* 2013-02: 25 min
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* [[:Image:Search-probability-lesson-plan.odt]]
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{{lesson slides start}}
{{lesson slides start}}
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{{lesson slide|00:00|3 min}}
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{{lesson slide|00:00|1 min}}
Introduce topic title
Introduce topic title
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Present Objectives
Present Objectives
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{{lesson slide|00:03|}}
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{{lesson slide|00:01|1 min}}
* Describe what a Search Area is
* Describe what a Search Area is
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* Describe ROW
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* Rest of World - ROW
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** can be just outside search area
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** can be back home, at bar
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** can be some other area completely
-
{{lesson slide||}}
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{{lesson slide||3 min}}
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* Methods to establish Search Area [2]
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'''Methods to establish Search Area''' [2]
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** LKP, PLS, IPP.
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** Theoretical Search Area [2]
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*** distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
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-
*** statistical search area [2]
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-
*** subjective search area [2]
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-
**** likely spots [2]
+
-
**** natural barriers [2]
+
-
**** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
+
-
**** physical clues [2]
+
-
**** historical data [2]
+
-
**** gut feeling [2]
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-
**** deductive reasoning [2]
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-
{{lesson slide||}}
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Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)
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* Confinement [2]
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-
** requires prompt action [2]
+
-
** tactics [2]
+
-
*** vehicle patrols [2]
+
-
*** road blocks [2]
+
-
*** trail blocks [2]
+
-
*** observation posts [2]
+
-
*** string lines [2]
+
-
*** track traps [2]
+
-
{{lesson slide||}}
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Typically one of two places:
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* Attraction [2]
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* Point Last Seen (PLS)
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** visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
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* Last Known Point (LKP)
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** sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
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** e.g. strong belief was there - location of car
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** aircraft [2]
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-
{{lesson slide||}}
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Theoretical Search Area [2]
-
* Segmentation [2]
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* distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
-
** size
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* statistical search area [2]
-
** boundaries
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* subjective search area [2]
 +
** likely spots [2]
 +
** natural barriers [2]
 +
** physical or mental limits of subject [2]
 +
** physical clues [2]
 +
** historical data [2]
 +
** gut feeling [2]
 +
** deductive reasoning [2]
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||1 min}}
 +
'''Confinement''' [2]
 +
* requires prompt action [2]
 +
* tactics [2]
 +
** vehicle patrols [2]
 +
** road blocks [2]
 +
** trail blocks [2]
 +
** observation posts [2]
 +
** string lines [2]
 +
** track traps [2]
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||1 min}}
 +
'''Attraction''' [2]
 +
* visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
 +
* sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
 +
* aircraft [2]
 +
 
 +
{{lesson slide||5 min}}
 +
'''Segmentation''' [2]
 +
* size
 +
** searchable area in reasonable time
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* boundaries
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** challenge of picking boundaries on map
 +
** risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
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** may have to flag
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
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* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
* POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
* POS= POA X POD [1]
* POS= POA X POD [1]
 +
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
* Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
* This helps mgmt., to [1]
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** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
** Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
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{{lesson slide||}}
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{{lesson slide||2 min}}
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* Effects on POD [1]
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'''Effects on POD''' [1]
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** Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
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* Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
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** Searcher fatigue [1]
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* Searcher fatigue [1]
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** Boredom [1]
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* Boredom [1]
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** Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
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* Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
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** Terrain [1]
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* Terrain [1]
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** Anything that affects your senses [1]
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* Anything that affects your senses [1]
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* POD Influences [1]
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** Time [1]
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POD Influences [1]
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** POD desired or accepted [1]
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* Time [1]
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** Time searcher is available [1]
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* POD desired or accepted [1]
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** Size of the segment [1]
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* Time searcher is available [1]
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** Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
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* Size of the segment [1]
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** Search method [1]
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* Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
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* SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
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* Search method [1]
 +
 
 +
Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
 +
* The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
 +
* Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
 +
 
 +
 
 +
SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
 +
 
{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
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* POA [1]
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'''POA''' [1]
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** Probability of area. [1]
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* Probability of area. [1]
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** Could the subject be in that area. [1]
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* Could the subject be in that area. [1]
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* Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
+
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** The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
+
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** Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
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{{lesson slide||}}
{{lesson slide||}}
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Example
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'''Example'''
* Koopmans Search
* Koopmans Search
* some areas searched 7 times
* some areas searched 7 times
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* flip chart or white board
* flip chart or white board
* suitable markers
* suitable markers
 +
* {{link|Image:Members:2013-02-27 19 37 09u-scan.pdf}}
 +
* [[Training/Ideas/Search probability theory]]
== Question bank ==
== Question bank ==

Current revision

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Use that template to make similar pages.

Contents

[edit] Subject

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[edit] Authors

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[edit] Scope

What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.

SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory", p.293
Basic SAR Skills Manual:
  • Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
  • Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
Search Area / Confinement

[edit] Prerequisites

What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.


[edit] Objectives

At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:

  1. will be able to ...

[edit] Time Plan

Total Time: 45 minutes

  • 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 35 min
  • 2013-02: 25 min


Time Material


00:00

1 min

Introduce topic title

Introduce Instructor

Present Objectives

00:01

1 min


  • Describe what a Search Area is
  • Rest of World - ROW
    • can be just outside search area
    • can be back home, at bar
    • can be some other area completely



3 min

Methods to establish Search Area [2]

Start with Initial Planning Point (IPP)

Typically one of two places:

  • Point Last Seen (PLS)
  • Last Known Point (LKP)
    • e.g. strong belief was there - location of car

Theoretical Search Area [2]

  • distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
  • statistical search area [2]
  • subjective search area [2]
    • likely spots [2]
    • natural barriers [2]
    • physical or mental limits of subject [2]
    • physical clues [2]
    • historical data [2]
    • gut feeling [2]
    • deductive reasoning [2]



1 min

Confinement [2]

  • requires prompt action [2]
  • tactics [2]
    • vehicle patrols [2]
    • road blocks [2]
    • trail blocks [2]
    • observation posts [2]
    • string lines [2]
    • track traps [2]



1 min

Attraction [2]

  • visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
  • sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
  • aircraft [2]



5 min

Segmentation [2]

  • size
    • searchable area in reasonable time
  • boundaries
    • challenge of picking boundaries on map
    • risks of team in adjacent segments leaving a gap
    • may have to flag



  • POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
  • POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
  • POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
  • POS= POA X POD [1]
  • Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how effective they have been or will be. [1]
  • This helps mgmt., to [1]
    • Distribute resources [1]
    • Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
    • How to treat a segment. [1]
    • Suspend a search. [1]
    • Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]



2 min

Effects on POD [1]

  • Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
  • Searcher fatigue [1]
  • Boredom [1]
  • Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
  • Terrain [1]
  • Anything that affects your senses [1]

POD Influences [1]

  • Time [1]
  • POD desired or accepted [1]
  • Time searcher is available [1]
  • Size of the segment [1]
  • Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
  • Search method [1]

Critical Spacing or Separation [1]

  • The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
  • Figure that will change with terrain. [1]


SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]



POA [1]

  • Probability of area. [1]
  • Could the subject be in that area. [1]



Example

  • Koopmans Search
  • some areas searched 7 times



  • Keeping variables independant
  • Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
  • Estimate portion of areas searched separately
  • Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?



[edit] Aids

What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.

[edit] Question bank

List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.

See Question bank

[edit] Frequently Asked Questions

What are some of the questions that students typically ask. Include the answers.


[edit] Feedback

When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.

  • 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting

[edit] License

What can others do with this lesson?


Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.

Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

[edit] Reference Material

If you need to cite sources, do so here.


[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.

[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13

[edit] Notes

Any additional notes, etc.

Retrieved from "http://pcsar.dyndns.org/mediawiki/index.php/SAR_Fundamentals/Search_probability"
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