SAR Fundamentals/Search probability
From PCSAR
Contents |
Subject
What is this lesson plan about?
Authors
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Scope
What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.
- SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory"
- Basic SAR Skills Manual:
- Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
- Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
- Search Area / Confinement
Prerequisites
What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.
Objectives
At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:
- will be able to ...
Time Plan
Total Time: 45 minutes
- 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr
| Time | Material
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00:00 3 min |
Introduce topic title Introduce Instructor Present Objectives |
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00:03
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instructional points in normal font aids, exercises, activities in italic |
Aids
What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.
- Non-publishable material
- flip chart or white board
- suitable markers
Question bank
List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.
See Question bank
Frequently Asked Questions
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Feedback
When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.
- 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting
License
What can others do with this lesson?
Original content copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.
Original content copyright © 2005, Brett Wuth.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
Reference Material
If you need to cite sources, do so here.
[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.
[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13
Notes
Any additional notes, etc.
- [From Jake's outline]
- Chapter outlines
- Chapter 22
- Search Probability Theory p.293
- Describe what a Search Area is
- Describe ROW
- Methods to establish Search Area [2]
- LKP, PLS, IPP.
- Theoretical Search Area [2]
- distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
- statistical search area [2]
- subjective search area [2]
- likely spots [2]
- natural barriers [2]
- physical or mental limits of subject [2]
- physical clues [2]
- historical data [2]
- gut feeling [2]
- deductive reasoning [2]
- Confinement [2]
- requires prompt action [2]
- tactics [2]
- vehicle patrols [2]
- road blocks [2]
- trail blocks [2]
- observation posts [2]
- string lines [2]
- track traps [2]
- Attraction [2]
- visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
- sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
- aircraft [2]
- Segmentation [2]
- size
- boundaries
- POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
- POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
- POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
- POS= POA X POD [1]
- Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how
- effective they have been or will be. [1]
- This helps mgmt., to [1]
- Distribute resources [1]
- Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
- How to treat a segment. [1]
- Suspend a search. [1]
- Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
- Effects on POD [1]
- Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
- Searcher fatigue [1]
- Boredom [1]
- Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
- Terrain [1]
- Anything that affects your senses [1]
- POD Influences [1]
- Time [1]
- POD desired or accepted [1]
- Time searcher is available [1]
- Size of the segment [1]
- Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
- Search method [1]
- SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
- POA [1]
- Probability of area. [1]
- Could the subject be in that area. [1]
- Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
- The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
- Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
- How to set it up [1]
- Placing an object ( the approx., size of the subject) on the ground. [1]
- Two searchers walk away until the last step of not seeing it. [1]
- This change with terrain/visibility. [1]
- Will be discussed in greater detail later. [1]
- Practice POD [1]
- Show the " old wives tales overhead". [1]
- Koopmans Search
- some areas searched 7 times
- Keeping variables independant
- Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
- Estimate portion of areas searched separately
- Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
