SAR Fundamentals/Search probability
From PCSAR
Contents |
Subject
What is this lesson plan about?
Authors
List who wrote this lesson plan.
Scope
What is included in this lesson, what's not and why.
- SAR Fundamentals Manual: Ch.22 "Search Probability Theory"
- Basic SAR Skills Manual:
- Ch.12 "Search Management Crucials"
- Ch.13 "Search Area/Confinement"
- Search Area / Confinement
Prerequisites
What should students already know/have accomplished before the lesson is presented.
Objectives
At the conclusion of this lesson the participants:
- will be able to ...
Time Plan
Total Time: 45 minutes
- 2011-03 19:00-19:35: 0.6 hr
| Time | Material
|
|
00:00 3 min |
Introduce topic title Introduce Instructor Present Objectives |
|
00:03
|
instructional points in normal font aids, exercises, activities in italic |
Aids
What materials are needed or useful in presenting this lesson.
- Non-publishable material
- flip chart or white board
- suitable markers
Question bank
List of questions suitable for an review/exam of this section.
See Question bank
Frequently Asked Questions
What are some of the questions that students typically ask. Include the answers.
Feedback
When has this lesson been presented. What was the feedback.
- 2004-09-07 Wuth presentation at PCSAR regular meeting
License
What can others do with this lesson?
Portions copyright © 2003, Jake Waiboer.
Portions copyright © 2005, 2013 Brett Wuth.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
Reference Material
If you need to cite sources, do so here.
[1] some material from Jake Waiboer developed for this section, provided personally.
[2] SAR Skills Handbook: FOG SAR, Field Operating Guide To Search and Rescue, Richard Smith et al., (c) ERI Canada et al., 2003, first edition, ISBN 0-9734135-0-6, Chapter 13
Notes
Any additional notes, etc.
- [From Jake's outline]
- Chapter outlines
- Chapter 22
- Search Probability Theory p.293
- Describe what a Search Area is
- Describe ROW
- Methods to establish Search Area [2]
- LKP, PLS, IPP.
- Theoretical Search Area [2]
- distance subject could have travelled from LKP. [2]
- statistical search area [2]
- subjective search area [2]
- likely spots [2]
- natural barriers [2]
- physical or mental limits of subject [2]
- physical clues [2]
- historical data [2]
- gut feeling [2]
- deductive reasoning [2]
- Confinement [2]
- requires prompt action [2]
- tactics [2]
- vehicle patrols [2]
- road blocks [2]
- trail blocks [2]
- observation posts [2]
- string lines [2]
- track traps [2]
- Attraction [2]
- visual: lights, flares, fires, smoke, balloons [2]
- sound: horns, PA system, shouting [2]
- aircraft [2]
- Segmentation [2]
- size
- boundaries
- POA- probability of area, to find the subject [1]
- POD- probability of detection, of the subject [1]
- POS- probability of success, of finding the subject. [1]
- POS= POA X POD [1]
- Understanding and using this formula helps mgmt., to understand how
- effective they have been or will be. [1]
- This helps mgmt., to [1]
- Distribute resources [1]
- Decide on which areas to search/research. [1]
- How to treat a segment. [1]
- Suspend a search. [1]
- Use in court. ( need documentation) [1]
- Effects on POD [1]
- Searcher prejudice- thoughts of search, subject isn't here!! [1]
- Searcher fatigue [1]
- Boredom [1]
- Weather on visibility/comfort [1]
- Terrain [1]
- Anything that affects your senses [1]
- POD Influences [1]
- Time [1]
- POD desired or accepted [1]
- Time searcher is available [1]
- Size of the segment [1]
- Type and effectiveness of resources [1]
- Search method [1]
- SAR manager may take these into consideration and adjust the expected/given POD. [1]
- POA [1]
- Probability of area. [1]
- Could the subject be in that area. [1]
- Critical Spacing or Separation [1]
- The distance from one searcher to another on a grid line. [1]
- Figure that will change with terrain. [1]
- How to set it up [1]
- Placing an object ( the approx., size of the subject) on the ground. [1]
- Two searchers walk away until the last step of not seeing it. [1]
- This change with terrain/visibility. [1]
- Will be discussed in greater detail later. [1]
- Practice POD [1]
- Show the " old wives tales overhead". [1]
- Koopmans Search
- some areas searched 7 times
- Keeping variables independant
- Novice searcher will estimate POD as 100%
- Estimate portion of areas searched separately
- Which is better? Thorough over long time? Rapid several times? Why?
